A card that wins for a frequent traveller can lose badly for someone who spends mainly on groceries and utilities. Build three profiles: your actual last-year spend, a conservative next-year estimate and a high-spend scenario. Run both cashback and points cards through all three.
For each card, calculate rewards category by category, apply monthly caps, remove excluded transactions and subtract the annual fee. Then add only benefits you would genuinely buy with cash. If lounge access saves you nothing because you never travel, its value is zero.
Watch redemption friction
Points can lose value when redemption requires a minimum threshold, portal-only booking or transfer to another programme. Cashback usually has lower friction, although it can also have caps or statement conditions. Put a “friction discount” on benefits that require extra effort or restricted merchants.
Avoid reward-induced overspending
If a points card encourages you to spend ₹20,000 extra to earn a ₹2,000 milestone voucher, the true value is negative unless that spending was already planned. Track rewards as a rebate on normal spending, not as permission to buy more.
Recalculate once a year because card rules change. A product that was excellent when you applied can become mediocre after reward devaluation or fee increases. The best card is not a permanent identity; it is a tool whose economics should be reviewed.